Description
Minimum Arctic sea ice extent 4.0-4.2m sq km during Aug 1, 2026–Oct 1, 2026, per NSIDC NH-Daily-Extent. Settlement occurs at the lowest daily extent in the window, reported to the nearest thousand square kilometers.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
—
All-time low
—
Created
Nov 20, 2025, 23:46
Resolve date
Oct 1, 2026, 00:00
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <4m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.0-4.2m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.2-4.4m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.4-4.6m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.6-4.8m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.8-5m sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 5m+ sq km | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.