Yes: Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). Resignation, detention, or loss of ability to perform duties qualifies; settlement follows Hezbollah announcements or credible reporting if needed.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.