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Description
Negative GDP growth in 2026? The BEA will release the Advance Estimate for Q4 2026 in January 2027, providing the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate. This market resolves to Yes if the 2026 growth rate is below 0%, otherwise No. Only the first Advance Estimate is used, with revisions ignored.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative GDP growth in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.