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Description
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? is a forecast of whether the Russian Armed Forces will initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv's municipal ground between market creation and April 10, 00:00 EET. A qualifying strike includes aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched at Kyiv municipality territory, even if interceptions occur. Excludes artillery, surface-to-air missiles, cyber operations, and non-kinetic actions; resolution follows credible media reporting or Ukrainian authorities if needed.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality between market creation and the specified date, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles, but excluding surface-to-air missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Attacks that consist primarily or exclusively of missiles or drones that are intercepted will still qualify if they constitute a strike against Kyiv municipality during the specified timeframe, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Clear evidence of a strike directed against Kyiv municipality within the specified area and timeframe will be sufficient. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, surface-to-air missiles, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.