Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Russia’s attempt to fully capture Donetsk Oblast by a deadline is assessed using the ISW map. The market resolves to Yes if, by the specified date, the nine listed municipalities—Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk—are simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (or DeepStateMap if ISW is unavailable) and the shading remains through the next full update cycle. A No resolves if any of these areas are not entirely shaded red by the resolution date, or if control is achieved only via negotiated settlements.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
3
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?Where will Trump and Putin meet next?Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?U.S. nuclear test by...?Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify. Once Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: 1. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. 2. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.