Price history
Select outcomes to plot.
Description
Kyiv municipality faces Russian strikes in the specified week. A Yes resolves if Russian Armed Forces launch a drone, missile, or air strike that hits Kyiv municipality ground territory within the week, inclusive of Monday through the following Sunday in Eastern European Time. Intercepted missiles or drones do not count; confirmed damage from an un intercepted strike does. Secondary sources include major international media and Ukrainian authorities, with official statements as a fallback. If confirmation is impossible by the third calendar date after the window, the market resolves to No.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
9
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...?Ukraine coup attempt by...?Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by...?Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?Where will Trump and Putin meet next?Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?
Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week of March 2 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Week of March 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Week of March 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Week of March 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Week of March 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Week of April 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Week of April 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Week of April 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Week of April 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality during the specified week, inclusive of the listed Monday and the following Sunday, Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces that impact Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Confirmation of damage caused by at least one qualifying unintercepted projectile within the specified area and timeframe will resolve this market immediately. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers; in the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official statements from the Ukrainian military (e.g., the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Ukrainian government authorities, including the Kyiv City State Administration and the Mayor of Kyiv. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.