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Description
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality market series assess whether the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality on the listed date in Eastern European Time. A strike is defined by aerial bombs, drones, or missiles impacting Kyiv municipality ground territory, excluding intercepts or surface-to-air interceptions. Resolution follows official government or military statements or a consensus of credible international reporting within the stated date window; if confirmation is not reached within 48 hours after the end date, the market resolves to No.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
29
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 1 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 2 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 3 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 4 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 5 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 6 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 7 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 8 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 9 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 10 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 11 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 12 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 13 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 14 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 15 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 16 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 17 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 18 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 19 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 20 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 21 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 22 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 23 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 24 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 25 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 26 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 27 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality on the listed date Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces that impact Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.