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Description
Russian strike on Poland by September 30, 2025 markets address whether Russia initiates an aerial attack on Polish soil or official Polish embassies/consulates between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying strike involves bombs, drones, or missiles launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish territory or official locations, excluding surface-to-air interceptions, artillery, cyber, or non-strike actions. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
3
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30, 2026 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.