Márcio França to win the 2026 São Paulo governor election. Settlement follows the official result reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) or credible reporting if needed; interim governors do not count and no result by June 30, 2027 will resolve to Other.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarcísio de Freitas | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Fernando Haddad | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Márcio França | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Erika Hilton | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kim Kataguiri | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Placeholder 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).