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Description
Texas Republican Senate Primary margins determine the winner: the market measures the absolute difference between the top two vote shares in the first Texas GOP Senate primary round, with runoff rules applying if no majority is reached. If two candidates tie on votes, the alphabetically earlier surname wins. Resolution follows the official Texas Secretary of State results; if not definitively known by Nov 30, 2026, the market resolves to Other.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
10
Market highlights
Top market
24h gainer
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Highest volume
Top market
24h gainer
24h loser
Highest volume
Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton 9%+ | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton 6–9% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton 3–6% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Paxton <3% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cornyn 6%+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cornyn 3–6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Cornyn <3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hunt 3%+ | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hunt <3% | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate Primary. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.