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Description
Trump approval Up or Down this week? tracks whether Donald Trump’s Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 17, 2026 than on July 10, 2026, with a Down outcome if the opposite is true and 50-50 if equal. The second date's data point is considered only after a subsequent day’s data is published; if missing for the first date, the most recent prior published value is used. If the second date is missing by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after, the most recent prior value is used. Resolution relies on Silver Bulletin’s poll aggregator data published to one decimal place, with RealClearPolitics as fallback if needed.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 17, 2026, than on July 10, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 10, 2026, than on July 17, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.