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Description
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET is the question. A public pledge by Iran to surrender all or any portion of its stockpile to a non-Iranian custody or control will resolve as Yes, whether announced unilaterally or within a peace or security agreement, provided the pledge covers transfer, shipment, or custody outside Iran and excludes non-state armed groups. Pre-resolution pledges count, and settlements rely on a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
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Markets
7
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| May 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| August 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| October 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.