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Description
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31, 2026. This market resolves to Yes when the US government officially confirms engaging in military coordination or providing support to Kurdish groups in Iran by the deadline; No otherwise. Confirmation requires an official policy announcement or a definitive on-the-record statement by an authorized US government entity.
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Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.