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Description
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? market assesses whether the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s leader by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. A qualifying statement must be direct from the US government or Donald Trump resolving the question of leadership status. If no such official recognition is announced by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.