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Description
Trump declares war on Iran by the specified date. This market resolves to Yes only when a formal public statement from President Trump or an official representative explicitly states that the United States is at war with Iran by the given ET deadline. Statements about force or retaliation do not qualify unless they contain a clear war declaration language, and executive orders or memoranda count only if they unambiguously declare war. Settles to No if no such declaration occurs by the deadline, with the primary resolution source as official government communications or credible reporting when needed.
Event stats
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Liquidity
Markets
3
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.