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Description
US strikes Iraq by...? is a two-market event tracking whether the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or on an official Iraqi embassy or consulate by the stated deadlines. A strike is defined as aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or an official Iraqi embassy/consulate. Intercepted surface-to-air missiles do not qualify, and artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other non-airstrike actions do not qualify. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if no qualifying strike is confirmed by the deadline, the market remains open through the end of the second day after that time, and if confirmation is impossible by then, the market resolves to No.
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Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iraqi soil or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iraqi ground territory or any official Iraqi embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iraqi territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.