Participation in Iran negotiations does not affect tariff announcements; this market concerns a China tariff decision related to the United States and must be announced by May 22, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). Yes if a definitive tariff reduction/removal/suspension is announced by China, including in a bilateral deal.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Participation in Iran Negotiations | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Boeing Aircraft Purchase | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| U.S. Soybean Purchase | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| U.S. Oil Purchase | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Rare Earth Export Relief | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Nvidia Chip Purchase | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, the Chinese government, or any authorized representative of the Chinese government announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on the United States between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tariff reductions specifically announced in relation to the United States, goods from the United States, or a specific set of countries including the United States will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market's resolution. Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying action announced within this market's time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.