Description
Taiwan Arms Sales Halt by May 22, 2026: the administration announces a halt to arms sales to Taiwan as part of policy adjustments; resolves if an official announcement occurs by 11:59 PM ET on May 22, 2026.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
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30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
May 11, 2026, 12:58
Resolve date
May 22, 2026, 00:00
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff Reduction | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| AI Export Restrictions Relief | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| New Sanctions | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Detained Americans Release | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| US-China Board of Trade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs reductions specifically announced in relation to China, goods from China, or a specific set of countries including China will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market’s resolution. Only definitive announcements qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.