Tariff Reduction to China by May 22, 2026: the Trump administration announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of tariffs on China-related goods or within a defined China-related country list. A mutual U.S.–China agreement qualifies; resolves if an official announcement occurs by 11:59 PM ET on May 22, 2026.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff Reduction | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Taiwan Arms Sales Halt | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| AI Export Restrictions Relief | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| New Sanctions | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| U.S.-China AI Safety Channel | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Detained Americans Release | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| US-China Board of Trade | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump administration announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on China between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs reductions specifically announced in relation to China, goods from China, or a specific set of countries including China will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market’s resolution. Only definitive announcements qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Any qualifying action announced within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.