US defaults on debt by 2027? Yes: a default occurs if the U.S. government fails to meet a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill within November 5, 2025 to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if any sovereign debt is publicly classified as default by Treasury or the rating agencies during that period.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US defaults on debt by 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.