Yes: active U.S. military personnel physically enter Venezuela’s land territory at any point before 11:59 PM ET on January 31, 2026, including special operation forces. Intelligence operatives do not count, and maritime or aerial entries do not qualify. Resolution relies on credible reporting.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| January 10 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| June 30 | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.