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Description
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? tracks whether Mount Vesuvius erupts with VEI of 1 or greater at any time from the market’s creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source is the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program, including the 2026 eruptions page. If an eruption qualifies, the market resolves Yes immediately; if not, it resolves No after the deadline, with a possible 14‑day verification window if an eruption is ongoing at year end. In case of temporary GVP unavailability or unresolved VEI after 14 days, a consensus from credible scientific sources may settle the market.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption. If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.