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Description
Blue Origin’s New Glenn explosion on May 28, 2026 during a hot-fire test prompts analysis of the publicly identified technical failure. The resolution follows the category Blue Origin designates as the primary cause; if multiple causes are named, the primary one will determine the outcome. If no primary cause is designated, the leading cause in the official disclosure will settle. If no primary cause is disclosed, or if no disclosure exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the absence of a declared cause or to No Cause Announced by that date. An overwhelming credible-reporting consensus may substitute where Blue Origin’s declaration is unclear or incomplete.
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7
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engine Failure | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Propellant Leak | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Valve or Plumbing Failure | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ground Support Equipment Failure | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Software or Control System Failure | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| No Cause Announced By December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/). This market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion. If Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure. If Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.” A preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification. If Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.” An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.