Description
Propellant Leak: Resolve to the propellant leak as the explosion’s main factor if Blue Origin names it as the primary cause in official communications.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
—
All-time low
—
Created
Jun 1, 2026, 12:22
Resolve date
Dec 31, 2026, 17:50
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engine Failure | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Propellant Leak | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Valve or Plumbing Failure | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ground Support Equipment Failure | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Software or Control System Failure | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| No Cause Announced By December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
On May 28, 2026, a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket exploded on its launch pad during a hot-fire test (see: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-explodes-launchpad-florida/). This market will resolve according to the listed category that most directly aligns with the technical failure publicly identified by Blue Origin as the cause of this explosion. If Blue Origin identifies multiple contributing causes, this market will resolve based on the cause Blue Origin describes as the primary cause of the explosion. If Blue Origin does not designate a primary cause, this market will resolve based on the cause most prominently featured in their official disclosure. If Blue Origin identifies any cause not clearly encompassed by any of the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other.” A preliminary or interim finding may qualify for resolution, provided it identifies a cause without material qualification. If Blue Origin does not publicly disclose the primary cause of the explosion by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Cause Announced by December 31.” An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting (e.g. reporting on Blue Origin communications through the media or the results of governmental investigations) on the cause of the explosion may also qualify in place of a formal Blue Origin declaration. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.