Description
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery to be struck kinetically causing physical damage by March 31, 2026, if Iran claims responsibility or originates from Iranian territory. Excludes cyber/proxy actions.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
—
All-time low
—
Created
Mar 1, 2026, 00:11
Resolve date
Mar 19, 2026, 20:01
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Resolved
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ruwais Refinery | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Burj Khalifa | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ghawar Field | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Safaniya Field | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Abqaiq oil processing facility | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Al Zour Refinery | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Leviathan Field | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Khurais Field | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ras Tanura | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| East–West Pipeline | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Habshan Field/Processing Complex | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ras Laffan Industrial City | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.