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Description
What will Iran strike by March 31? Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on a listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes count only if they cause physical damage to the facility’s infrastructure and are explicitly claimed by Iran or confirmed as originating from Iranian territory; drones/missiles that are shot down, miss, or hit open spaces do not qualify. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions do not count, and attacks by proxies do not count. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
14
Market highlights
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Top market
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center) | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ruwais Refinery | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Burj Khalifa | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ghawar Field | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Safaniya Field | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Abqaiq oil processing facility | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Al Zour Refinery | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Leviathan Field | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Khurais Field | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ras Tanura | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| East–West Pipeline | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Habshan Field/Processing Complex | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ras Laffan Industrial City | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.