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Description
Which countries will strike Iran by March 31, 2026? This event tracks any UAE, UK, France, Jordan, Turkey, Canada, Germany, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, or any EU country initiating a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or on official Iranian embassies/consulates by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2026. A strike must involve aerial weapons impacting Iranian territory or embassies; interceptions or non-arial actions do not count. Settles to Yes if a qualifying strike occurs; otherwise No, based on credible reporting consensus.
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.