Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar to be arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). Includes custody, surrender, booking, or house arrest; excludes arrests issued but not executed or non-arrest investigations.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Audias Flores-Silva | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Juan Reyes Mejía González | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Juan Pablo Ledezma | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.