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Description
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026? A yes resolves if any listed leader is arrested or detained by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Temporary holding qualifies if they are in official custody during that time; qualifying forms include physical custody, voluntary surrender to an arrest warrant, booking, handcuffing by law enforcement, surrender at a station or courthouse with counsel, or house arrest/electronic monitoring. Excluded are unexecuted warrants, interviews without arrest, or indictments without arrest. The primary resolution source is official government or law enforcement announcements; a credible-reporting consensus may also be used.
Event stats
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Liquidity
Markets
8
Market highlights
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Audias Flores-Silva | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Juan Reyes Mejía González | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Juan Pablo Ledezma | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.