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Description
US forces enter Iran by..? is a binary event about whether active US military personnel physically enter Iran (terrestrial territory) by a given deadline, with special operation forces qualifying and intelligence operatives excluded. Entering maritime or aerial space does not count, and contractors/advisors or diplomatic entourages do not count. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting and applies to each listed date window.
Event stats
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
Markets
9
Market highlights
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Related events
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 1 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 3 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 7 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 14 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.