Description
March 14 Yes: US active military personnel physically enter Iran’s terrestrial territory by March 14, 2026 (ET) per credible reporting consensus. Maritime/airspace entries excluded; special operations count, others do not.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
—
30D change
—
24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
—
All-time low
—
Created
Feb 28, 2026, 14:01
Resolve date
Mar 15, 2026, 07:08
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Resolved
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 1 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 3 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 7 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 14 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Event Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.