January 31? Yes: US active military personnel physically enter Iran’s terrestrial territory by January 31, 2026 (ET) per credible reporting consensus. Entering maritime or airspace does not count; special operation forces count, other personnel do not.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 31 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| February 28 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 1 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 3 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 7 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| March 14 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| April 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.