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Description
Will ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? IMF Portwatch will publish daily transit-call counts for the Hormuz chokepoint. A Yes resolves if a single date in March records arrivals equal to or above the specified threshold, based on Portwatch data for all ship types reported. If no March date reaches the threshold, or data is not published for the final date within the window, the market resolves No based on the published records up to that point, with revisions considered within the window.
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Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz (chokepoint 6) equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.