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Description
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? IMF Portwatch will publish a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz and the next calendar month with an average at or above 60 will determine the first qualifying month. The month containing the date of the first qualifying data point resolves; if no qualifying month is published, the market resolves to No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026. Revisions within the window are allowed and considered in qualification; data is sourced from IMF Portwatch transit calls data.
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Related events
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran leader end of 2026?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?US announces blockade on Iran by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.