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Description
Trump publicly insults a named individual or someone identifiable by context by June 30, 2026. This market resolves to Yes if any statement from Trump attacks, mocks, or disparages the target personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner, disseminated publicly before the deadline. Excludes policy disagreements stated without disparagement and excludes nonpersonal criticisms of actions that do not attack the person. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
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26
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Carlson | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Megyn Kelly | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Candace Owens | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Alex Jones | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pope Leo XIV | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Vladimir Putin | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Joe Biden | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Barack Obama | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Pam Bondi | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| J.D. Vance | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Melania Trump | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Xi Jinping | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Keir Starmer | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Viktor Orbán | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Elon Musk | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jerome Powell | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Nicolás Maduro | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Zohran Mamdani | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Jimmy Kimmel | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Emmanuel Macron | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Freidrich Merz | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Norah O'Donnell | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Kaitlan Collins | Yes | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Mohammed bin Salman | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.