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Description
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? concerns a potential shift in Bitcoin’s cryptographic algorithm due to quantum threats. The market resolves to Yes if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with settlement based on the Bitcoin blockchain and a consensus of credible reporting. No otherwise.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.