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Description
Canada’s 2026 unemployment Market examines whether any month in 2026 shows a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for people aged 15+ that is higher than any month since January 2017. Resolution uses the first monthly Labour Force Survey release from Statistics Canada; revisions do not count. If a qualifying month is not released yet, the most recent month’s data governs; data snaps to a Yes when a month exceeds all prior 2017–2025/monthly highs, otherwise No.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.