Yes: the Republican party ceases to hold a majority of seated voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives at any point before polls open on November 3, 2026. Because a tie does not count, wins require less than or equal to half of the seated voting members; resolution sources include the House Press Gallery data or credible reporting in consensus.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.