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Description
Russia’s control of Novodmytrivka in Sumy Oblast will be judged by ISW map shading on the specified date. The Yes outcome occurs if any portion of the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E is shaded red on the ISW map by 11:59 PM ET, with persistence through the next full ISW daily update cycle or through a settlement if a negotiated agreement transfers de facto control. If not shaded red by the deadline, the market resolves No. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a backup if needed.
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2
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| September 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.