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Description
Tesla plans to release a humanoid, bipedal robot for consumer use by a June 30, 2026 deadline. A Yes resolves if a newly introduced humanoid robot is available for purchase by the general public via an official Tesla consumer channel with live checkout or paid preorder/deposit by that date, per Tesla statements. Exclusions include non-humanoid robotics, internal deployments, employee programs, and partner pilots. The primary source for resolution is Tesla's official statements and materials.
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2
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | No | — | — | — | — | — | |
| December 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.