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Description
Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? Donald Trump must make any public statement between market creation and April 30 (ET) that insults, mocks, or personally attacks Pope Leo XIV in a clearly negative manner to settle Yes. If no qualifying disparagement occurs, the market settles No. A direct reference suffices even if the pope is unnamed in context, and credible reporting will serve as the resolution source.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.