Croatia to win the 2026 Eurovision First Semi-Final by achieving the highest points among the listed countries on May 12, 2026. Settlement follows Eurovision rules for ties; No if Croatia cannot lead, and Other if no ranking by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Croatia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Estonia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Finland | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Georgia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Greece | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Israel | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Lithuania | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Moldova | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Montenegro | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Poland | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Portugal | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| San Marino | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Serbia | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Sweden | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country A | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country B | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country C | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country D | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country E | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country F | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country G | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country H | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country I | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country J | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Country K | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.