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Description
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? is a yes/no market about Google's public release of Gemini 4.0. The Yes outcome requires that Gemini 4.0 is launched and publicly accessible to the general public by June 30, 2026, including open beta or rolling waitlist signups, with a public Google-announced release. Private access or closed betas do not satisfy. The No outcome applies if the public release does not occur by that date. The primary resolution source is Google, supplemented by credible reporting consensus if needed.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.