Description
8–10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher will occur worldwide in 2026. Settlement determined by USGS 2026 calendar year results, with extensions only if needed for late entries.
Price history
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Market stats
Odds
24h change
7D change
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30D change
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24h volume
Total volume
Liquidity
All-time high
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All-time low
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Created
Dec 31, 2025, 17:12
Resolve date
Dec 31, 2026, 00:00
Position in event
Odds rank
24h volume rank
24h move rank
Status
Active
Parent event
Market Outcomes
Event Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.