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Description
Ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of May 25, 2026 will be tallied by IMF Portwatch across dates May 25–June 1, inclusive. Final counts depend on when each date’s data is finalized; if the final date’s data isn’t finalized within the stated window, the market settles based on data published up to that point. The window excludes ships not reported by IMF Portwatch, and data integrity issues may delay resolution up to three days after final data release.
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Related events
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?Iran leadership change by...?US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Markets
Rules
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 25, 2026, through June 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which data is released for the final date in that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if data has not been released for any day in the specified period within 14 calendar days of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which data is released for the final date in the specified period to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.