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Description
Israel election in 2026 asks whether Likud will lose seats. Elections are set for October 27, 2026. Yes resolves if Likud wins fewer than 32 seats; No otherwise. If joint lists or mergers affect seat counts, all seats for the relevant list count. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting or, if ambiguous, the official Central Elections Committee results.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).