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Description
Nicolás Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026 is the focus. Exile requires Maduro to actually relocate from Venezuela to live in Russia, whether by expulsion or voluntary departure, and to do so for an extended period. Visits, detentions, or mere announcements do not qualify. Resolution rests on a consensus of credible reporting confirming the exile.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Russia by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Russia if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Russia for an extended period. Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify; he must actually move there. Visits or trips to Russia will not count. Imprisonment or detention in Russia will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.