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Description
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31, 2026 is evaluated on whether direct U.S. government personnel participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil. Direct participation by military, DEA, CIA, or any agency must be confirmed by official U.S. government statements or corroborated by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Roles in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory capacities do not qualify. The resolution target is March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with No otherwise.
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.