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Description
Nicolas Maduro's exile to Qatar by March 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET) would require Maduro to depart Venezuela and reside freely in Qatar for an extended period. Exclusions apply to mere announcements, visits, or trips, and imprisonment in Qatar does not count. Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting indicating a real relocation rather than a temporary absence.
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Markets
Outcome | Odds | Spread | 24h Change | 24h Volume | Total Volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro exiled to Qatar by March 31? | No | — | — | — | — | — |
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is exiled to Qatar by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Maduro will be considered to be exiled to Qatar if he is expelled from, or voluntarily leaves, Venezuela to live in freedom in Qatar for an extended period. Announcements of Maduro's exile will not qualify, he must actually move there. Visits or trips to Qatar will not count. Imprisonment or detention in Qatar will not count. Freedom of movement is not required for a qualifying exile, as long as Maduro is not being held as a prisoner or detainee. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.