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Description
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by a stated date across successive timeframes: March 31, April 30, May 31, or June 30. Resolution requires confirmation that he has exited Iran for any length of time by the specified date; departures via airspace or maritime routes count only if the exit from Iran is confirmed or the vessel leaves Iranian waters. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
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4
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Related events
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Iran leadership change by...?Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by...?Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Iran strike on US military by March 31?Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?Iran strikes Israel on...?
Markets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.